Statehood remains distant dream for Palestinians as nightmare unfolds in Gaza

Plans announced by France the United Kingdom and Canada to recognise a Palestinian state wont bring one about anytime soon though they could further isolate Israel and strengthen the Palestinians negotiating position over the long termThe problem for the Palestinians is that there may not be a long termIsraeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu rejects Palestinian statehood and has vowed to maintain openended control over annexed east Jerusalem the occupied West Bank and the warravaged Gaza Strip territories Israel seized in the 1967 war that the Palestinians want for their stateIsraeli leaders favour the outright annexation of much of the West Bank where Israel has already built well over 100 settlements housing over 500000 Jewish settlers Israels offensive in Gaza has reduced most of it to a smoldering wasteland and is pushing it toward famine and Israel says it is pressing ahead with plans to relocate much of its population of some 2 million to other countries The United States the only country with any real leverage over Israel has taken its sideCritics say these countries could do much morePalestinians have welcomed international support for their decadeslong quest for statehood but say there are more urgent measures Western countries could take if they wanted to pressure IsraelIts a bit odd that the response to daily atrocities in Gaza including what is by all accounts deliberate starvation is to recognize a theoretical Palestinian state that may never actually come into being said Khaled Elgindy a visiting scholar at Georgetown Universitys Centre for Contemporary Arab StudiesIt looks more like a way for these countries to appear to be doing something he saidFathi Nimer a policy fellow at AlShabaka a Palestinian think tank says they could have suspended trade agreements with Israel imposed arms embargoes or other sanctions There is a wide tool set at the disposal of these countries but there is no political will to use it he saidIts not a completely empty gestureMost countries in the world recognised Palestinian statehood decades ago but Britain and France would be the third and fourth permanent members of the UN Security Council to do so leaving the US as the only holdoutWere talking about major countries and major Israeli allies said Alon Pinkas an Israeli political analyst and former consul general in New York iquestTheyre isolating the US and theyre leaving Israel dependent not on the US but on the whims and erratic behavior of one person TrumpRecognition could also strengthen moves to prevent annexation said Hugh Lovatt an expert on the conflict at the European Council on Foreign Relations The challenge he said is for those recognising countries to match their recognition with other steps practical stepsIt could also prove significant if Israel and the Palestinians ever resue the longdormant peace process which ground to a halt after Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu returned to office in 2009If and when some kind of negotiations do resume probably not in the immediate future but at some point it puts Palestine on much more equal footingiquest said Julie Norman a professor of Middle East politics at University College LondonIt has statehood as a starting point for those negotiations rather than a certainlynotassured endpointIsrael calls it a reward for violenceIsraels government and most of its political class were opposed to Palestinian statehood long before Hamas Oct 7 2023 attack triggered the warNetanyahu says creating a Palestinian state would reward Hamas and eventually lead to an even larger Hamasrun state on Israels borders Hamas leaders have at times suggested they would accept a state on the 1967 borders but the group remains formally committed to Israels destructionWestern countries envision a future Palestinian state that would be democratic but also led by political rivals of Hamas who accept Israel and help it suppress the militant group which won parliamentary elections in 2006 and seized power in Gaza the following yearPalestinian President Mahmoud Abbas whose authority administers parts of the occupied West Bank supports a twostate solution and cooperates with Israel on security matters He has made a series of concessions in recent months including announcing the end to the Palestinian Authoritys practice of providing stipends to the families of prisoners held by Israel and slain militantsSuch measures along with the security coordination have made it deeply unpopular with Palestinians and have yet to earn it any favours from Israel or the Trump administration Israel says Abbas is not sincerely committed to peace and accuses him of tolerating incitement and militancyLovatt says there is much to criticise about the PA but that often the failings of the Palestinian leadership are exaggerated in a way to relieve Israel of its own obligationsThe tide may be turning but not fast enoughIf you had told Palestinians in September 2023 that major countries were on the verge of recognising a state that the UNs highest court had ordered Israel to end the occupation that the International Criminal Court had ordered Netanyahus arrest and that prominent voices from across the US political spectrum were furious with Israel they might have thought their dream of statehood was at handBut those developments pale in comparison to the ongoing war in Gaza and smaller but similarly destructive military offensives in the West Bank Israels military victories over Iran and its allies have left it the dominant and nearly unchallenged military power in the region and Trump is the strongest supporter it has ever had in the White HouseThis Israeli government is not going to change policy Pinkas said The recognition issue the ending of the war humanitarian aid thats all going to have to wait for another government