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Debt-to-GDP ratio to guide fiscal policy rather than fiscal deficit: Budget 2026

The upcoming Union Budget 2026 is expected to prioritise lowering India’s debt-to-GDP ratio over a fixed fiscal deficit target, aiming to bring debt down to around 50 percent by 2031 under the revised FRBM framework

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India targets 50 percent debt-to-GDP by 2031 under new fiscal roadmap. File Pic

India targets 50 percent debt-to-GDP by 2031 under new fiscal roadmap. File Pic

The upcoming Budget is going to put emphasis on easing the debt-to-GDP ratio, which is around 56 per cent, instead of targetting a specific fiscal deficit number as the country has almost reached the end of the glide path envisaged in the FRBM legislation. A fiscal deficit of 3-4 per cent is considered comfortable and a desirable target for a growing, developing economy like India, aiming to balance economic expansion with financial stability.

Under the revised Fiscal Responsibility and Budget Management (FRBM) Act, the fiscal deficit target was below 4.5 per cent of GDP for 2025-26. Therefore, the union government announced a new glide path with the debt-to-GDP ratio as the fiscal anchor. So, the roadmap for the next six years was announced in the FRBM statement released on February 1, 2025.

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