Analysing key factors likely to shape 2024 Lok Sabha elections

The state assembly elections in India have set the stage for the muchanticipated 2024 Lok Sabha elections in AprilndashMay 2024 The Bharatiya Janata Party BJP led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi has received a significant boost from its victories in the Hindi belt states of Chhattisgarh Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan These results underscore the BJPs continued dominance primarily driven by Modis enduring popularityAccording to Morning Consult which tracks approval ratings of world leaders Modi enjoys a staggering 78 per cent approval among Indians surveyed in late November with a net approval of 60 a remarkable consistency since August 2019While the BJPs pole position is evident its essential to recognise that state election results may not mechanically predict voter behaviour in the upcoming general elections Traditionally there was a discernible correlation between state and national elections but recent trends suggest a breakdown in this relationship The Congress Partys success in the December 2018 assembly elections in Chhattisgarh and its subsequent defeat in the Lok Sabha elections less than six months later exemplify this shiftHowever theres reason to believe that the correlation between state and national elections could strengthen in 2024 due to Modis unparalleled popularity The electorates incentive to support the BJP at the national level reinforcing Modis position may play a pivotal roleThe road to 2024 presents several key issues that will shape the political landscape1 Recently held state electionsHistorically there was a correlation between state and national elections with ruling state parties gaining momentum early in their tenure However recent years have witnessed a breakdown in this correlation While the BJPs celebration is justified it would be shortsighted to assume that state results precisely predict national outcomes Modis popularity could potentially strengthen this correlation in 20242 INDIA allianceIn the 2014 and 2019 elections the BJP benefitted from a fragmented opposition facing multiple parties competing with each other To counter this more than two dozen opposition parties announced the formation of the Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance popularly known as INDIA alliance This alliance ranging from the Congress Party to regional parties aims to present a unified front against the BJP However challenges such as agreeing on a common platform leadership vacuum and seatsharing agreements pose significant hurdlesThe opposition must move beyond mere antiBJP sentiment and articulate a coherent alternative vision for governance The absence of a clear leader within the INDIA alliance puts it at a disadvantage compared to the ruling alliance which boasts Modis charismatic leadership The oppositions ability to develop a forwardlooking political narrative that resonates with voters is critical3 Backward castesThe battle for the allegiance of Other Backward Classes OBCs constituting a substantial voter bloc is a crucial factor The BJP under Modis leadership successfully attracted OBCs especially the Extremely Backward Classes EBCs in previous elections However the demand for a comprehensive caste census in states like Bihar has brought casterelated issues to the forefrontBihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar championed the cause of a comprehensive caste census revealing that OBCs make up 63 per cent of the states population This has fuelled demands for proportional reservations in government jobs The BJPs response including the fate of the Rohini Commissions report on sub categorisation of OBCs will significantly influence the political narrative and determine the partys support among different caste groups4 Welfare schemesWelfare schemes and their impact on voting behaviour are poised to be pivotal in the 2024 elections The Modi governments focus on new welfarism involves significant investments in the public distribution of goods and direct cash transfers The expansion in cash transfers and inkind assistance has been substantial reaching millions of beneficiariesFormer chief economic adviser Arvind Subramanian notes in ldquoNew welfarism of Indiarsquos Rightrdquo that the BJPs economic program includes a critical pillar of new welfarism The governments initiatives including direct cash transfers and the extension of pandemicera schemes have contributed to rising living standards The BJPs ability to innovate in this domain and respond to the oppositions welfare promises will shape public opinionIn the recently concluded state assembly elections parties across the spectrum made lavish promises of transfers if brought to power The BJP for instance announced substantial cash transfers in Mizoram and Chhattisgarh The opposition has homed in on the BJPs welfare plank aiming to challenge its association with numerous central welfare schemesWhile welfare promises do not guarantee victory they play a crucial role in shaping voter perceptions The BJPs success in the 2019 election partly attributed to welfare schemes suggests that voters who received benefits were more likely to support the party As the opposition counters with its own promises the BJP is likely to innovate further in this domain given the fierce response to its welfare initiatives5 Foreign policy in political discourseIndias evolving role on the global stage has blurred the lines between elite and mass issues Traditionally foreign policy national security and trade were considered elite issues while mass issues pertain to everyday concerns like inflation jobs and welfare benefitsModis government has successfully integrated foreign policy into domestic political discourse The 2019 Pulwama attack and subsequent developments including Indias strikes on alleged terrorist training camps in Pakistan generated a nationalist fervour that Modi capitalised on during the campaign The impact of foreign policy on voter behaviour particularly in times of security crises cannot be understatedTheres a widespread perception that Modi has elevated Indias status globally ensuring the country has a seat at the global high table Indias G20 presidency and the governments marketing campaign celebrating this achievement highlight the domestic political salience of how India is perceived internationally The opposition faces challenges in critiquing the governments foreign policy without being perceived as undermining national interestsAs India gears up for the 2024 Lok Sabha elections the BJP holds a strong position with Modis popularity and organizational strength The opposition despite recent state election setbacks has attempted to present a united front The challenges of coordinating diverse opposition parties addressing caste dynamics navigating the welfare discourse and engaging with foreign policy issues will shape the political narrativeCrafting nuanced strategies that resonate with the diverse electorate remains crucial for all political parties involved The multifaceted nature of Indian democracy demands a comprehensive understanding of these issues to navigate the complex electoral landscape