How will smaller political parties impact Maharashtra assembly elections 2024?

The Maharashtra Assembly elections 2024 promise to be a pivotal event in the statersquos political history While the big playersmdashShiv Sena various factions BJP Congress and factions of NCPmdashare expected to dominate the headlines the role of smaller political parties will be critical in shaping the final outcome Their influence though not always visible in statewide tallies can disrupt equations in key constituencies and force larger parties to address localised concernsRegional players in the spotlightSmaller parties like the Maharashtra Navnirman Sena MNS Vanchit Bahujan Aaghadi VBA All India MajliseIttehadulMuslimeen AIMIM and Swabhimani Shetkari Sanghatana SSS and other local entities have carved niches in Maharashtrarsquos diverse political landscape Their focused agendas regional appeals and the ability to target specific communities or issues often resonate with voters disillusioned with mainstream partiesldquoThe strength of smaller parties lies in their ability to speak directly to the aspirations of neglected groups Whether they win or not they shift the conversationrdquo said political analyst Abhay Deshpande saidWhat leaders say about the role of smaller partiesMaharashtra Congress Chief Spokesperson Atul Londhe stated that smaller parties are unlikely to have a significant impact on the results of the Maharashtra Assembly elections 2024People are aware that the BJP wins due to vote division However they have become more aware and are now avoiding such divisions Voters are casting their ballots for the candidates they want to see win Therefore I dont believe smaller parties will have any impact on the election results Londhe saidHe expressed confidence that the Maha Vikas Aghadi MVA will secure a victory in the 2024 Maharashtra Assembly elections The MVA will win the elections comfortably and form the government in the state Londhe saidShiv Sena spokesperson and deputy leader Sheetal Mhatre stated that smaller parties will not have a major impact on the elections Smaller parties might win one or three seats but they will only be important if the tally doesnt add up So I dont believe these parties will have any significant impact she saidShe said that the Mahayuti will win the elections with a majority We have observed the rise in womenrsquos participation in the voting process which reflects their approval of the governmentrsquos initiatives for them We are confident that we will win this election with a majority Mhatre saidVote splittingSmaller parties often act as votesplitters especially in constituencies where larger parties have a narrow margin For instance AIMIMrsquos targeted appeal among Muslim voters could challenge CongressNCPrsquos traditional voter baseWhile the VBA under Prakash Ambedkar has a strong Dalit and OBC support base focusing on caste equity and economic justice These resonate with specific demographics and could compel major parties to adjust their manifestosVBA contested 193 seats in this election The major vote base of VBA is SC especially the Mahar community across Maharashtra along with a section of the Muslim community as well like in Akola The VBA could not gather much traction in the 2024 Lok Sabha election which is quite evident from the fact that its Vote share in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections dropped from 71 per cent to 36 per cent in Maharashtra After this performance in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections the VBA founder Prakash Ambedkar started a statewide rally called Aarakshan Bachao Rally on July 25 2024 The idea was to fight for the reservation of SCST and OBCs in Maharashtra and signal to Manoj Jarange Patil that OBCs share of the reservation would not be less Political analyst Ritwik Mehta saidThe VBA is always seen as a vote cutter in Maharashtra which eventually helps the BJP in many places where SC and Muslim populations in very high Thus VBA contesting at SCdominated seats comes out to be a triangular fight between the Mahayuti MVA and VBA There are more than 200 ACs in Maharashtra where SC population is more than 1037 thus increasing the significance of the VBA he addedMehta further said that the VBA has given Mahar community candidates in Vidarbha Mumbai North Maharashtra and Western Maharashtra while it has given candidates from Dhangar Vanjari and Mali communities in the Marathwada region Thus the VBA will might help the Mahayuti in Vidharbha Mumbai North Maharashtra and Western Maharashtra whereas damage a section of the vote bank of Mahayuti in Marathwada as Dhangar Vanjari and Malis vote for the Mahayuti BJP to be specific he saidSimilar to the VBA as well the AIMIM also cuts into the Muslim votes thus diverting them towards the INC or NCP SCP and eventually helping the BJP MahaYuti In the 2024 Assembly elections the AIMIM contested around 20 seats The voting pattern of the Muslim community has changed in the past few years as the community has also come to know that voting for the AIMIM eventually means helping the BJP Therefore its relevance in Maharashtra is lesser than the independent Muslim candidates Also it was quite evident in the Maharashtra elections this time both Lok Sabha and Assembly elections that the Muslim community will vote only for MVA as was announced by various Muslim community leaders Mehta saidHe feels that independent candidates are different from the regional parties but very important at the same time It is a known fact that political parties either fund strong leaders to contest as independent candidates to cut into the rivals vote share Or some leaders contest independently because they dont get a ticket Before the Assembly elections the Mahayuti and MVA were busy engaging with their party leaders who filled up the form as an independent There are many constituencies where MVA is going to face damage because of their independent candidates while the MahaYuti managed its independent candidates quite well Mehta saidLets understand from examples Ramtek AC where the official candidate of MVA is Vishal Barbate from SS UBT and Mahayutis candidate is Ashish Jaiswal the incumbent MLA On this AC the INC leader Rajendra Mulak is contesting as an independent and surprisingly the whole INC cadre is backing Rajendra Mulak The fight is between Ashish Jaiswal and Rajendra Mulak and thus MVAs candidate will surely lose But if Rajendra Mulak wins he will then join the MVA Even in the BJP the daughter of Vijay Kumar Gavit Dr Hina Gavit is contesting as an Independent from Akkalkuwa constituency he saidHe further said that apart from this other regional parties are BSP GGP which is more relevant in Vidarbha only Prahar Jan Shakti Party which is relevant more in Amravati district RPI A has more hold in Mumbai region and supports MahYuti Samajwadi Party more relevance in MumbaiNegotiation powerSmaller parties often negotiate with bigger coalitions for seatsharing arrangements leveraging their influence in specific regions ldquoTheir localised strength often determines the terms of the alliancerdquo said political analyst Abhay DeshpandeChallenges for smaller partiesWhile their impact is undeniable smaller parties face significant hurdles including limited resources and the perception of being votecuttersldquoFor these parties to sustain their relevance they must focus on building a consistent grassroots presence beyond election cyclesrdquo noted Abhay DeshpandeOutlook for 2024The Maharashtra assembly elections 2024 could see smaller parties asserting themselves as kingmakers in tightly contested seats Their ability to galvanise specific voter blocs and force larger players to address niche issues makes them indispensable to Maharashtrarsquos political narrativeAs Maharashtra gears up for a highstakes election all eyes will be on how these smaller entities leverage their influence to challenge the traditional powerhouses and redefine the statersquos political landscape