January 2025 breaks heat records; leaves scientists surprised

Last month was the hottest January on record blitzing the previous high and stunning climate scientists who expected cooler La Nina conditions to finally start quelling a long running heat streakThe Copernicus Climate Change Service said January was 175C hotter than preindustrial times extending a persistent run of historic highs over 2023 and 2024 as humancaused greenhouse gas emissions heat the planetClimate scientists had expected this exceptional spell to subside after a warming El Nino event peaked in January 2024 and conditions gradually shifted to a cooling La Nina phase But the heat has lingered at record or nearrecord levels ever since sparking debate among scientists about what other factors could be driving warming to the top end of expectationsScientists warn that every fraction of a degree of warming increases the intensity and frequency of extreme weather events like heatwaves heavy rainfall and droughts January was 009C hotter than the previous high of January 2024 a sizeable margin in global temperature terms said Julien Nicolas a climate scientist from CopernicusThis is what makes it a bit of a surprise youre not seeing this cooling effect or temporary brake at least on the global temperature that we were expecting to see he told AFPStefanRahmstorf from the University of Potsdam said it was the first time that temperatures recorded during a La Nina period were above those of a preceding El Nino This is of serious concern over the past sixty years all twenty five La Nina Januarys have been cooler than surrounding years he said Weak La Nina ndashThis year La Nina is expected to be weak and Copernicus said prevailing temperatures in parts of the equatorial Pacific Ocean suggested a slowing or stalling of the move towards the cooling phenomenonNicolas said it could disappear completely by MarchLast month Copernicus said that global temperatures averaged across 2023 and 2024 had exceeded 15 degrees Celsius for the first time This did not constitute a permanent breach of the longterm 15C warming target under the Paris climate accord but was a clear sign that the limit was being testedOverall 2025 is not expected to follow 2023 and 2024 into the history books scientists predict it will rank as the third hottest year yetCopernicus said it would be closely monitoring ocean temperatures throughout 2025 for hints about how the climate might behaveOceans are a vital climate regulator and carbon sink and cooler waters can absorb greater amounts of heat from the atmosphere helping to lower air temperatures They also store 90 percent of the excess heat trapped by humanitys release of greenhouse gasesThis heat is bound to resurface periodically said Nicolas I think thats also one of the questions is this what has been happening over the past couple of yearsSea surface temperatures have been exceptionally warm over 2023 and 2024 and Copernicus said readings in January were the second highest on recordThat is the thing that is a little puzzling why they remain so warm Nicolas said Open questions ndashBill McGuire a climate scientist from University College London said it was astonishing and frankly terrifying that January remained at record highs despite La Nina emergingJoel Hirschi from the UKs National Oceanography Centre cautioned against reading too much into a single months data saying record warmth had been observed following El Nino phases even after the onset of La NinaScientists are unanimous that burning fossil fuels has largely driven longterm global warming and that natural climate variability can also influence temperatures from one year to the next But natural warming cycles like El Nino could not alone explain what had taken place in the atmosphere and seas and answers were being sought elsewhereOne theory is that a global shift to cleaner shipping fuels in 2020 accelerated warming by reducing sulphur emissions that make clouds more mirrorlike and reflective of sunlightIn December a peerreviewed paper looked at whether a reduction in lowlying clouds had let more heat reach Earths surfaceThese are avenues that must be taken seriously and remain open Robert Vautard a leading scientist with the UNs climate expert panel IPCC told AFPThe EU monitor uses billions of measurements from satellites ships aircrafts and weather stations to aid its climate calculations Its records go back to 1940 but other sources of climate data such as ice cores tree rings and coral skeletons allow scientists to expand their conclusions using evidence from much further in the past Scientists say the current period is likely the warmest the Earth has been for the last 125000 yearsThis story has been sourced from a third party syndicated feed agencies Midday accepts no responsibility or liability for its dependability trustworthiness reliability and data of the text Midday managementmiddaycom reserves the sole right to alter delete or remove without notice the content in its absolute discretion for any reason whatsoever